Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
