Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
