A mere eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach scolded him for missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When the England international curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have piled up.
Per the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have put together 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A reversion to average might be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the force he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
